Young Voters Rally to Conservative Parties in the USA, Argentina and Canada

 

Young Americans are turning thumbs down to the statist policies of the Democrats.  Polls show Trump leading Biden among 18-35 year olds.  But it’s not just the USA.  Young people are rejecting socialism and the parties of the left throughout the world.

The most recent NBC poll shows Donald Trump beating Joe Biden by four points among 18 to 35 year olds.  Trump also has a four point margin over Biden among all voters.

This is a seismic shift in the views of young voters.  In the 2020 election, Biden had a 26 point lead among voters between the ages of 18 and 35 reports the Daily Mail 

But its not just the United States. 

Young people are rallying to candidates with a conservative and free market message throughout the world.

Young voters were the key to libertarian Javier Milei’s victory in the Argentine presidential election. 

Milei promised to stop inflation through a sound money policy; cut public spending by 15 percent; and stop rampant corruption.

Milei got 56 percent of the vote in the November 19 election.

In his victory speech, Milei said that his victory marks the beginning of the reconstruction of Argentina. 

“Today we retake the path that made this country great.  Today we embrace the ideas of libertarianism.  The model of decadence has come to an end.”

Argentina was once one of the richest countries in the world.  Today, more than half of all Argentines are poor or destitute.  Inflation is 143 percent a year.  The

And it doesn’t stop there.

North of the border, in Canada, Pierre Poilievre’s free market message is winning over young voters. 

Poilievre’s stock speeches address issues like inflation and loose monetary policy; Canada’s housing shortage, free speech and cutting Canada’s bloated and oppressive government bureaucracy.  He’s an eco-modernist backing technological solutions, not taxes, to the climate change question. 

And importantly, Poilievre’s upbeat and making it fun to be a conservative again. 

Young people throughout the world are rejecting socialism and the bureaucratic, high tax parties of the left.  This includes Joe Biden and the Democrats. 

Instead, young voters are putting their hopes in pro-freedom, pro-opportunity parties in much of the world.  This is good news for parties on the right.  Now these parties need to deliver.

 

Canada’s Conservatives Are Attracting Gen Z Voters. What Can Republicans Learn from Them?

The Republican party lags far behind the Democrats in attracting young voters.  What is the Canadian Conservative Party doing right and the Republican Party doing wrong? 

Polling data from Canada shows that the Conservative Party has a significant lead among Gen Zs and Millennials over Justin Trudeau’s ruling Liberal Party. 

A June 2023 Ipsos poll puts Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives at 37 percent overall compared top 32 percent for the Liberal Party. 

Importantly, Conservatives are ahead among Canadians of every generation. 

Conservatives have an 18 point lead over the Liberal Party among Gen Z and a 1 point lead among Millennials. 

This is enough for a huge swing in Canadian politics.  Like the United States, Canada has a first past-the-post electoral system control requires only winning the most seats, not a majority of the overall vote since Canada has a multiparty system.  Trudeau’s ruling Liberals only got 33 percent in the last Canadian federal election but that was sufficient to form a governing coalition.   

Contrast that with the United States.  Sixty-five percent of voters 30 and younger voted for the Democrats in 2022, up from 62 percent in 2020. 

Young voters were the key to the Democrats maintaining control of the U.S. Senate in 2022.  Were it not for younger voters, Republicans would now control both houses of Congress. 

Young people are fed up with Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi and the relics governing our country.  A New York Times survey found that only one percent of 18 to 29 year-olds strongly approve of the job that Joe Biden’s been doing.  That’s one percent. 

Yet the Republican Party badly trails among younger voters and has no identifiable plans or strategy for outreach to twenty- and thirty-somethings. 

For a glimpse at what Canadian Conservatives are doing right, here’s Jordan Peterson’s interview with Pierre Poilievre

Lesson 1: Communicate.  Notice how clearly and calmly Poilievre speaks.  Contrast that with Joe Biden’s mumblings or Kamala Harris’s word salads.  Bureaucratic speak and empty talking point won’t do it.  Younger voters want leaders that communicate in language the average person can understand. 

Lesson 2: Have principles.  Poilievre’s statement on the importance of the free market is more forthright than anything that’s come from a Republican politician since Ronald Reagan.  The Republican Party needs candidates that can speak to free market economics or other conservative ideals with the same passion as Mr. Poilievre. 

Lesson 3: Be for change.  Poilievre clearly contrasts the Conservative agenda with the of the ruling Liberals.  Young Americans are looking for change too.  Surveys show that more than 90 percent of young Americans are either angry or frustrated with the federal government. 

Lesson 4: Have an agenda for younger voters.  Notice how Poilievre talks about housing costs and job opportunity—two issues of core concern for younger voters.  being against won’t do it.  The Republican Party needs an agenda that speaks specifically to the concerns of twenty- and thirty-year-old Americans. 

Republican politicians and operatives should look to Canada as a model on how to broaden the base by brining younger voters into the coalition.  If not, Republicans will find itself in the political wilderness, unable to win elections or influence the future direction of the 

Look North to See How the GOP Can Attract Young People

 

America’s Republican Party has a big problem.  Republicans do well with older voters.  But Republican politicians go over like a lead balloon with voters under the age of 40. 

Exit polls show that by a two-to-one margin, young people preferred Joe Biden to Donald Trump in the 2020 election.  Democrats captured the support of younger voters by similarly large margins in every election since 2004. 

Because individual party preferences are formed early in one’s adult life and tend to persist, the failure to attract younger voters to the Republican cause bodes ill for the future of the GOP. 

So how can Republicans attract younger voters?  Canada’s new Conservative party leader shows how its done. 

Pierre Poilievre is Canada’s new Conservative Party leader.  Poilievre is a huge hit with young people.  He’s attracting large numbers of young people to his party and to conservative positions. 

Polling shows that the Conservative Party is now the most popular choice of Canadians between the ages of 18 and 29. 

So what is Poilievre’s secret to attracting young people to the Conservative Party?

According to the Canada’s National Post, Poilievre’s popularity is doe to the fact that he’s actually addressing issues that young Canadians care about.

“Poilievre’s growing popularity among young voters is likely due to how he’s seized upon an opening by providing coherent messaging that addresses the general state of dissatisfaction and the economic anxieties that are weighing on young Canadians.  That includes continuing frustrations about the inaccessibility of home ownership, income instability and inflation.”

Poilievre offers a mix of populism and libertarianism. 

He blames deficit spending by the ruling Liberals for inflation.   Poilievre is proposing implementing a pay-as-you-go law which requires any new spending to be offset through cuts elsewhere. 

Poilievre seeks to address high housing costs by reducing restrictions on development.   

Poilievre believes that Canada needs to address climate change but wants to reduce CO2 emissions through technological solutions, not by impoverishing Canadians. 

Polievere is a moderate on most social issues.  He supports gay marriage and does not want to make changes to abortion policies in Canada.  In Canada abortions are generally not available after the twenty-third week of pregnancy. 

Poilievre is a strong supporter of free speech.  He’s an opponent of woke authoritarianism in academia, the media and government. 

He supported the right of the Canadian truckers to protest.  He also opposed the use of Canada’s Emergencies Act to crack down on COVID dissenters.   

Pierre Poilievre’s plain-spoken, solutions-oriented mix of conservatism and libertarianism might be just what the Republican party needs to attract young voters,   

Young People in France Are Looking for Political Change But Likely Won’t Get It

 

Results of the first round of the French presidential election show that most young people in France are looking for alternatives to the current political order. 

Results of polling by Ipsos of the first round of the April elections appear below.

 

In the first round, Emmanuel Macron was bested by both Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon among voters under 32 and attracted less than 25 percent support among voters under 60.      

This being France, only Valérie Pécresse from Les Républicans and Éric Zemmour offered free market economic programs.  Zemmour focused on tax cuts while Pécresse planned to cut France’s bloated bureaucracy and regulatory state. 

Macron is a corporatist.  Macron wants more intervention in business with government directing capital to and providing protectionist measures to politically-favored businesses and industrial sectors. 

LePen is also a protectionist and advocates for expansion of entitlement spending by reducing the retirement age from 62 to 60.  She offers a particularly innovative approach to taxation by exempting workers below the age of 30 from the income tax.  This will allow young people to build wealth, buy homes and start families. 

Mélenchon’s economic program is straight out of Bernie sanders playbook—more spending, bigger government and more regulation of the private sector.

Polls show that Macron is ahead of Le Pen in the second round.  Poll show that Macron is favored to win.  That may be the case.  However, a macron victory will not bring about the type of political and economic change that young people in France long for.     

Yet Another Poll Shows Republicans Have a Golden Opportunity To Appeal to Young Voters

 

The latest Quinnipiac poll shows Joe Biden’s approval ratings continue to tank among the Millennials and Generation Z.  But will the GOP be able to capitalize on young voter dissatisfaction?

Quinnipiac surveyed 1,462 adults from March 24-28, 2022.

According to the survey, only 27 percent of Americans aged 18-34 approve of the way Joe Biden is handing his job.  This compares to 36 percent for all Americans.

Biden’s overall 36 percent is dismal.  However, for several decades, Democrats have depended on the votes of young voters to offset the Republican edge among voters age 45 and over.  That edge has gone away. 

In the 2020 election, Biden received 60 percent among young voters.  Based on the results of the Quinnipiac survey, half of the young people that voted for Biden in 2020 do not approve of his performance in office. 

Nor do young voters view Biden as a strong leader when it comes to his handling of the crisis in Ukraine.  When asked whether Biden has demonstrated strong leadership in his dealings with other NATO nations in the response to the invasion, only 34 percent of young people view Biden as a strong leader.   

The collapse in youth support for Biden provides the GOP with a golden opportunity to make deep inroads with rising generations.

In 1980 and 1984, Ronald Reagan won the hearts and minds of millions of young Americans.  But since that time, young voters have increasingly favored Democrats. 

Republicans should take a page from the Reagan playbook.  Young voters then were attracted to his message of economic opportunity, growth, optimism and a strong America.  I believe that young people would be attracted to the same message today. 

Polling Shows Opportunities for Republicans Among Young Voters in 2022

 

The latest Economist/YouGov poll shows young people disillusioned with the Biden Administration and the Democratic Party.  But can Republicans make the sale?

The Economist/YouGov polled 1500 Americans on their views on the Biden Administration and the ideological positioning of the two major parties.

Americans overall, and young Americans in particular, are not optimistic on the outlook for the next three years under Joe Biden.  Just over a third of young Americans are optimistic about the remaining Biden presidency.   The same number of Americans aged 18 to 29 are pessimistic.

  It is important to remember that exit polls found that Biden received 60 percent of the vote among 18 to 29 year-olds ion the 2020 election.  Clearly large numbers of young voters have become disillusioned with the failures, corruption and big government policies of the Biden Administration.    

Biden does slightly better among 30 to 44 year-olds.  Still, a substantial majority of Americans under the age of 45 are either pessimistic or unsure.  The Biden Administration has not endeared itself with young people in America. 

Young Americans are more likely to see the Democratic party as too far to the left than want to see the Democratic party continue to move left.  By a 3 to 2 margin, 18 to 29 year-olds view the Democratic Party as more left wing than they are.  The margin increases to two-to-one among 30 to 44 year-olds. 

Nevertheless, the Republican party also needs to do a lot of work to appeal to young voters.  Young voters are more likely to see Republicans as too far to the right than not conservative enough.  However, older voters are more likely to view the Democratic party as too extreme.  Almost half of Americans 65 and over see the Democratic party as much father to the left than they are while less than a third find Republicans too far right. 

The fact that voters overall are marginally more likely to find the Democrats too far to the left (33 percent versus 29 percent for the Republicans) is in stark contrast to the corporate media narrative which routinely characterizes Republicans as “far right” but never, ever characterizes Democrats as “far left”).

Republicans need to make the case that the free market system and smaller government are in the best interest of young people.  It is younger Americans, who have more of their lives and careers ahead of them, who have the most to gain from a pro-growth, pro-opportunity economic program for America.    

 

 

Young Voters Overwhelmingly Disapprove of Biden. Will the GOP Seize This Opportunity?

 

A new poll by CIVIQS provides more evidence that younger voters are turned off top Joe Biden.  Will young voters register their disapproval of the Biden Administration in November?

I blogged a few days ago about polling data that showed younger voters turned off to Joe Biden and willing to look toward the GOP on important issues including on jobs and the economy.

The openness of young people to the GOP message could make the 2022 election a watershed moment in American politics. 

During the past twenty years, majorities of younger voters have favored the Democratic Party while older voters have favored the Republican Party.  Younger voters have been critical to the success of Democrats at all levels of government. 

Now large numbers of young people have been turned off by the incompetence of the Biden Administration.

CIVIQS surveyed over 160,000 registered voters on their views of Joe Biden’s performance as president. 

Their survey shows that generational differential in approval have disappeared. 

A mere 26 percent of Americans under the age of 35 approved of Joe Biden’s handling of his job as president.  Approval among younger voters was lower than the 34 percent approval rate for Biden among all voters. 

Biden’s approval numbers are underwater is most major demographic groups.  His approval levels are equally dismal among both highly educated young people and non-college graduates and among and men as well as women. 

Most telling, only a slim majority—51 percent--young people that describe themselves as Democrats approve of the job that Biden has done as president and a mere 42 percent of young Blacks approve of Biden’s handling of his job.

Young Americans are clearly dissatisfied with the left-wing Biden agenda and are looking for a change.

Will the Republican Party be able to craft a 2022 message that appeal to young people.  If so, 2022 could be a watershed year.  If not, then .... 

Will 2022 be the Year of the Young Republican?

 

Low approval for the Biden Administration and dissatisfaction with the state of the economy may finally bring young people around to the Republican Party.

The Democratic Party is dependent on young voters for electoral success.  Young people tend to vote Democratic while older voters favor the Republicans.

The age gap is so wide and persistent that had only voters over the age of 40 voted, not only would Donald Trump have been reelected in 2020, Mitt Romney and John McCain would have won in 2008 and 2016. 

And if only Americans over the age of 35 voted, Republicans would easily control both houses of Congress and a large majority of governorships.

Recent polling shows that young people have soured on the policies and performance of the Biden Administration.  I previously discussed results of the CBS poll.  Now a new poll by the Morning Consult shows equally dismal numbers for the Democrats.

The table below compares Biden’s approval in the Morning Consult poll with the share of the vote that he received in the 2020 election by age group. 

The difference between Biden’s job approval and the percentage of older Americans that voted for him in the 2020 election is less than ten points.

But among Americans below 35—Generation Z and younger Millennials—the gap between approval and vote share is a whopping 23 points.  Indeed, younger Americans now are marginally less likely to approve of Joe Biden’s performance as President than are older Americans.   

 

The decline in Biden’s approval ratings among younger Americans provides an excellent opportunity for Republicans bring younger voters over to their side. 

Young people now view Republicans as better able to manage the economy.  Economic issues are the top concern of young people according to the Morning Consult poll. 

 

Young people are open to electing more Republicans to Congress.  Democrats now only hold a slight edge among Americans between 18 and 34 though almost a quarter of the youngest voters say that they are unsure who they’ll vote for.

 

The failures and incompetence of the Biden Administration have created an opening for republicans to pitch their message to younger voters.  Whether Republicans will offer policies and candidates that are attractive to young voters remains to be seen.

Biden Tanks With Generation Z and Millennials

Young people were pivotal to the election of Biden in the 2020 election.  Now young Americans have become so dissatisfied with the Biden Administration that his approval levels among the young is at or above that of older voters.

If only voters over the age of 40 voted in the 2020 election, Donald Trump would have won in a landslide and the Republicans would have massive majorities in the House and Senate.

Now young Americans are turning on Biden. 

A January 2022 poll by CBS News and YouGov shows the depth of the dissatisfaction of young Americans with the performance of the Biden Administration.  It’s so bad that disapproval rates among young people are at the same level as older Americans

Results appear below:

Biden’s 42 percent approval rate among Generation Z is no different that the 40-44 percent among Americans over the age of 45.

And Biden’s approval rate for his handling of the economy among Generation Z is more than 10 points lower than Americans over age 45. 

In some ways this is little surprise.  Young people who are just starting their careers are feeling the effect of slow job growth.  The U.S. economy currently has 4 million fewer jobs today than in 2019 and many of those missing jobs would have been filled by young people.

Moreover, the Biden Administration offers little reason for hope among the young.

Their paychecks are being eaten away by the inflationary policies of the Biden Administration.

And young people should be bedeviled by the fear that they are the ones that will be stuck with the bill for Biden’s massive deficits and spending programs that benefit mostly special interests.

Does this portend a permanent change in the voting preference of young people?  Perhaps.  

 

Why the GOP Shouldn't Write Off the Milennial Vote

A new Harvard Survey shows that the votes of young people in 2012 are up for grabs.  In a trial heat against Mitt Romney, young people between 18 and 29 favor Obama by a mere 11 point margin over Mitt Romney (37% Obama to 26% for Romney).  That's a far cry from the 2-1 margin by which younger voters favored Obama over McCain.  The survey also found that a majority of young people believe that Obama will lose the election.     

On the issues (toplines here) Millennials disapprove of Obama's handling of the federal budget (30% approve, 67% disapprove) and the economy (32% approve, 65% disapprove).  Millennials even give Obama a thumbs down on his signature issue: health care (43% approve, 54% disapprove).

Will this be the year the GOP finally connects again with younger voters?