Falling Behind: Financial Expert Shows Real Earnings of College Graduates Lower Than in 1983

Financial expert Robert Gill estimates that to live as well as one's parents (or grandparents) did in 1983 earning $30,000 a year, at today's prices one would have to earn $162,342.  

That's a 441 percent increase.

Compare that to the change in earnings of new college graduates in 1983 and 2023.  

The average earnings of a new college graduate in 1983: $17,700

The average earnings of a new college graduate in 2023: $58,862

Earnings of new college graduates are up just 246% 

Or think of it this way.  If $30,000 a year was what a family needed to live comfortably in 1983, a new college graduate earned 59 percent of that.  A new graduate with an engineering degree ($24,100 a year) could almost support a middle class family.

Today, it's impossible with one, oftentimes two, college graduates working full time as the earnings of new grads ($58,862) are just 36 percent of $2,342.   

  

Jonathan Turley: A Majority of Stanford Students Support Canceling Conservative Speakers

 

I've blogged before that the biggest problem that America faces is that our elites don't believe in American values such as free speech, individual liberty or the free enterprise system.  

Jonathan Turley's April 19 column provides more evidence of the elite disdain for these American values. 

Stanford University is at the very top of the hierarchy of American higher education.  Holders of Stanford diploma are well represented among those in  top government jobs, in the tech sector, and on Wall Street.  So what Stanford students and grads think matters a lot. 

According to a recent survey by FIRE, Stanford students have little tolerance for those with views other than their own. 

Last year Stanford students shouted down Judge Kyle Duncan at Stanford Law School.  Instead of defending the Judge, Law School Dean for Diversity, Equity and Inclusion Tirien Steinbach criticized the Judge for appearing and sided with the students disrupting his speech.  Oh the irony!

Turley writes of the findings of FIRE's 2024 survey of the views of Stanford students regarding free speech:  

FIRE released “The Judge Duncan Shoutdown: What Stanford Students Think,” including 54% of Stanford students said that Judge Duncan’s visit should have been canceled by the administration.

Another 36% stated that using physical violence to shutdown a campus speaker is “always,” “sometimes,” or “rarely” acceptable.

75% said the same about shouting down a speaker to prevent them from speaking.

Not surprising, only six percent of conservative students now feel comfortable disagreeing with professors.

The survey is consistent with other surveys and polling in higher education.

The early years of adulthood play a critical role in the formation of our attitudes toward ourselves, others and society at large.  That so many young Americans have closed themselves off to other opinions is disturbing.  That such intolerance is especially widespread among the elites bodes ill for the future of America.

Though framed in terms of consideration of those with different view on political questions, the intolerance displayed by Stanford students is unlikely to be contained to the political realm.

As rising generations today assume leadership roles in American institutions, intolerance of others is also likely to be reflected in the nature of business dealings, in the administration of government, in medical treatment, in foreign policy and in personal and marital relations.  The result: more failures of business judgement, more wasteful public expenditure, more medical errors, more war and regional conflict, and more unhappy marriages and personal relationships.         

John Stuart Mill wrote about the role of free thought and speech in human progress:

It is hardly possible to overstate the value, in the present low state of human improvement, of placing human beings in contact with persons dissimilar to themselves, and with modes of thought and action unlike those which they are familiar. ...  Such communication has always been, and is peculiarly in the present age, one of the primary sources of progress.  (Principles of Political Economy, 1848) 

Higher education has traditionally been viewed as a means for the advancement of human progress.  Today, in many ways, it is the reverse.  The intolerant attitudes acquired and reinforced through one's time on the campuses of Stanford and other elite universities are a barrier to human progress.  A barrier to progress created by the universities themselves and the faculty and administrators that run them.    

        

Slouching Towards 1984

 

The US House of Representatives voted 273-147 last week to extend the many tenacles of the surveillance state by forcing businesses as mundane as fitness centers or hardware stores to assist the NSA in warrantless searches of US citizens.

The founders would be aghast. 

The framers of the United States Constitution were so concerned that the government would intrude on the private lives of citizens that they wrote a prohibition on warrantless searches of persons and property into Article 4 the Constitution.  Article 4 states:

The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.

Yet warrantless searches of the electronic communications of US citizens is exactly what this bill allows. 

Elizabeth Goitein of the Brennan Center explained in a series of posts on Twitter/X

I’ll explain how this new power works. Under current law, the government can compel “electronic communications service providers” that have direct access to communications to assist the NSA in conducting Section 702 surveillance.

In practice, that means companies like Verizon and Google must turn over the communications of the targets of Section 702 surveillance. (The targets must be foreigners overseas, although the communications can—and do—include communications with Americans.)

Through a seemingly innocuous change to the definition of “electronic communications surveillance provider,” an amendment offered by House intel committee (HPSCI) leaders and passed by the House vastly expands the universe of entities that can be compelled to assist the NSA.

If the bill becomes law, any company or individual that provides ANY service whatsoever may be forced to assist in NSA surveillance, as long as they have access to equipment on which communications are transmitted or stored—such as routers, servers, cell towers, etc. That sweeps in an enormous range of U.S. businesses that provide wifi to their customers and therefore have access to equipment on which communications transit. Barber shops, laundromats, fitness centers, hardware stores, dentist’s offices… the list goes on and on. 

It also includes commercial landlords that rent out the office space where tens of millions of Americans go to work every day—offices of journalists, lawyers, nonprofits, financial advisors, health care providers, and more.

Ron Paul explains how the National Security Agency and other elements of the surveillance states have used loopholes in Section 702 to conduct surveillance of US citizens.

Section 702 authorizes warrantless surveillance of foreign citizens. When the FISA Act was passed, surveillance state boosters promised that 702 warrantless surveillances would never be used against American citizens. However, intelligence agencies have used a loophole in 702, allowing them to subject to warrantless surveillance any American who communicated with a non-US citizen who was a 702 target. Intelligence agencies could then also conduct warrantless surveillance on any Americans who communicated with the new American target. This Section 702 loophole has been used so often to subject Americans to warrantless wiretapping that it has been referred to as the surveillance state’s crown jewel.

Section 702 has already been widely abused by the NSA, FBI and other spying agencies.  Just last year court documents revealed that the FBI had improperly searched for information on US citizens 278,000 times including searches for information on January 6 defendants and the killing of George Floyd. 

Young Americans should be particularly concerned.  It’s no fun to be watched by the government all the time.  Just ask Chinese dissidents like When Chen. 

When Chen picked up his phone to vent his anger at getting a parking ticket, his message on WeChat was a drop in the ocean of daily posts on China's biggest social network.  But soon after his tirade against "simple-minded" traffic cops in June, he found himself in the tentacles of the communist country's omniscient surveillance apparatus.  Chen quickly deleted the post, but officers tracked him down and detained him within hours, accusing him of "insulting the police".  He was locked up for five days for "inappropriate speech".

George Orwell wrote of the dangers of mass surveillance in Nineteen Eighty Four.  His 1949 novel was intended as a warning of how the surveillance state would crush the individual and free thought.  Unfortunately, in modern Washington, Orwell’s novel is more like a “how-to” manual.   

 

 

 

Five Signs Biden’s Economic Policies Have Been a Disaster

 

Young Americans today are experiencing a replay of the economic problems that their parents and grandparents experienced in the 1970s: Stagflation.  Stagflation is the combination of tepid economic growth and rapidly rising prices. 

Both low growth and high inflation are a direct result of the policies of the Biden Administration.

Biden’s high tax and oppressive regulatory policies have throttled economic activity. 

At the same time, his massive spending programs and deficits have showered special interests with cash. 

The result: negligible economic growth, diminished employment opportunities, rising prices and high interest rates. 

Here’s five pieces of evidence that demonstrate that Joe Biden’s economic policies have hurt young  Americans 

1. Small business confidence at lowest level in 11 years.

Young people are more likely to work at smaller firms than are older workers.  The National Federation of Independent Business survey shows that small business owners are more pessimistic than at any time since 2013.  That includes the pandemic years where many small businesses failed during the shutdowns.  Also note how small business confidence soared during the Trump years. 

 

2. No full-time jobs have been created in the past 14 months

Job opportunities are particularly important for new graduates and younger workers looking to switch jobs.  The number of full-time jobs in the United States is same as 14 months ago and the number of full-time jobs has crashed in the last six months according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

 

 

3. No signs of a Federal Reserve rate cut

High interest rates make it difficult for young people to buy a home,.  The average rate on a 30-year home mortgage is over 7.5 percent.  Expectations for a rate cut in 2024 have evaporated as investors no longer view the federal Reserve as able to bring inflation under control.  According to Reuters:

“Expectations for how deeply and how soon the Fed will cut rates have shifted rapidly over the last few months, as investors grow increasingly doubtful that policymakers will be able to lower borrowing costs without sparking an inflationary rebound in a strong economy. The Fed has projected it will cut rates by 75 basis points this year.”

4. Food prices have risen by almost 40 percent since 2019.

Food is a larger share of total spending by lower income and younger households.  The increase in food prices has far outstripped wage growth.  Have your earnings increased by 40 percent since 2019?

 

5. More Americans see their financial situation getting worse

or the first time since the Federal Reserve began collecting data in 2014, a majority of Americans see their personal financial situation as worse than the previous year.  This again is a stark contrast to the Trump years in which Americans saw their situation getting better each year. 

 

Bonus: the 2020s are so bad that Americans now long for the 1970s!

 

Gen Z Culture Roundup

 

Gen Z is facing early 'mid-life crisis' due to social media, US Surgeon General warns  

Gen Z Rudest Generation Ever  

Gen Z: bad office etiquette might be holding you back at work

I’m Gen Z and proud NOT to work – I’ve quit three jobs because bosses don’t give me gym breaks… I won’t be a victim

Survey Says Gen Z Workforce Is Toxic, 'Least Reliable' — And That's Just The Start

Generational Theft Canadian Style: Secret RCMP report warns Canadians may revolt once they realize how broke they are

 What's the result of nine years of the left wing government of Justin Trudeau?  National collapse according to a report by the Royal Canadian Mounted Police.  The RCMP's report was obtained by Canada's National Post via an open records request.  The report is highly redacted so one can only assume that the parts that are taken out are even more dire than that which remained.  

The report states: "The coming period of recession will … accelerate the decline in living standards that the younger generations have already witnessed compared to earlier generations" and that "[e]conomic forecasts for the next five years and beyond are bleak."

The Post adds more detail on Canada's dire economic situation and how high housing costs--higher relative to incomes than the United States--mean that young Canadians are unlikely to ever afford to buy a house.

In terms of declining living standards and inaccessible home ownership, the RCMP’s warnings are indeed in line with available statistics.

Canadian productivity — measured in terms of GDP per capita — has been trending downwards since at least the 1980s. But this has accelerated dramatically in recent years — even as per-worker productivity rises in many of our peer countries.

An analysis last year by University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe found that if Canada had merely kept pace with U.S. productivity growth for the last five years, Canadian per-capita earnings would be $5,500 higher than they are now.

Meanwhile, housing affordability has reached “worst-ever” levels in most of Canada’s major markets, according to a December analysis by RBC. On average, even condos are now so unaffordable that only 44.5 per cent of Canadian households had sufficient income to buy one at current prices. As for single-family homes, only the richest 25 per cent of Canadian households had any hope of obtaining one.

According to the Heritage Foundation, economic freedom in Canada declined sharply since Trudeau took office.  

The Canadian experience again shows how socialism harms the interests of the young.  Nine years into the Trudeau Administration, young people in Canada can only look forward to declining living standards and renting in perpetuity.  Not a happy situation.    

Lack of Hope Making Young Americans Into Doom Spenders

Two in five Gen Zs and Millennials are doom spending according to a survey of 1000 consumers by Credit Karma.  Doom spending is defined as spending money as way to cope with stress about the economy and war.  It's evidence of a lack of hope in the future.    

Jake Peirce, 25, told the Chicago Sun-Times that the reason he is doom spending is that “with inflation and the cost of living increasing, it makes me wonder where our world is heading. I know it won’t get better, and I would rather live it up and spend money as opposed to saving.”

There are a lot of factors leading young Americans to give up hope for the future.

Soaring housing costs and lack of availability are causing a lot of young people to give up on ever being able to own a home.  House prices have doubled since 2010 far outstripping the growth in wages.  

High home prices make it more difficult for young people to live on their own.  For the first time since the Great Depression of the 1930s a majority of young Americans now live with their parents.   

Inflation and falling real wages are another concern especially among Gen Zs.  Employment services find that young Americans are more concerned about salary and wages when looking for a job than any other generation.  

War is also am concern.  Over the last two years the United States has been the primary weapons supplier and financial supporter of Ukraine in its war with Russia, a country with over 6,000 nuclear weapons.  According to the Doomsday Clock of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the world is closer to a nuclear war today than at any time in history.

Young people are also concerned about the prospects of war.  Half of Americans between 18 and 29 think that it's very or somewhat likely that there will be another world war within the next 5 to 10 years and more than half think that a future world war would involve nuclear weapons.  

There are also other signs that young Americans are losing hope in the future.  Young Americans are increasing depressed, unhappy and lonely.  

All of these signs point to a difficult future for young people and for America.  Our lives are path dependent.  The early years of adulthood are the time in which we form our vision of ourselves and for the world around us.  That vision stays with us the rest of our lives.

The effects of rising unhappiness and hopelessness among the young will permanent change the character of America.  Gen Zs and Millennials will be less entrepreneurial and optimistic, as well as crankier and less trusting of others, when they reach middle age when it is they, not the Baby Boomer and Gen Xers, that are in charge of the institutions of American political and economic life.   

   

Bidenomics: Financial Difficulties Causing Fewer Gen Zers to Get Engaged

 

Marriage is a key life milestone and engagements are a step towards married life.  However, the economic state of young Americans is so poor that fewer Gen Zers are choosing to get engaged.  

Signet Jewelers, the parent company of Kay Jewelers and Zales reports that the upswing in engagements that they predicted post-COVID is not working out as planned.  

Signet Jewelers Ltd., the parent company of Kay Jewelers and Zales, had previously signaled to investors that there would be an upswing in US engagements this year as dating patterns returned to normal. But that forecast was downgraded on Wednesday as the jeweler warned that persistently high inflation and job market uncertainty have forced some young folks to delay engagements. 

"If right now they're worried about their jobs or they're still paying a little bit more for rent or for gas, then they might wait a few months for that engagement," Gina Drosos, the CEO of SignetSignet, explained in a Wednesday interview quoted by Bloomberg.

Drosos said 2.1 million couples were engaged last year, the lowest in years, but recovered from the dating dry spell during Covid. Still, the number is well below the 2.8 million level seen pre-2020. 

The downshift in the outlook comes after three years of elevated inflation, which has strained consumers' finances. 

 

Switzerland Votes to Fleece Its Kids

 

The Swiss might have a reputation for thrift and self-discipline.  However, the results of Switzerland’s March 3 pension referenda show that even the Swiss have no taste for entitlement reform.  If pension reform is a political non-starter in Switzerland, why should young Americans have any hope that Washington will save Social Security? 

On Sunday 58% of Swiss voters decided to give themselves a pension raise and stick their kids with the bill. 

The raise took the form of a thirteen monthly pension check.  Starting in 2026, every Swiss pensioner will get a double payment in the month of November.  Payments in the other months will remain the same.  This amounts to an 8% pay raise for every pensioner, every year, forever. 

A sweet deal if you can get it.

Younger Swiss voters opposed the pay boost.  The vote reflects a generational divide.  Fifty-five percent of voters under 40 opposed the pension hike.  Older Swiss voters showed that they had no qualms about fleecing younger generations. 

Swiss voters also rejected by a margin of 75% to just 25% a proposal to raise the pension age from 65 to 66 by 2033.   

The proposal to raise the pension age was put forward by the Young Radical-Liberals.  The group gathered 145,000 signatures to put the referendum on the ballot. 

The Radical-Liberal Party, better known as the Free Democratic Party or the Liberals, is Switzerland’s classical liberal party.  The Free Democrats are the fourth largest party in the Swiss National Council.  The Young Radical-Liberals are the youth wing of the Free Democrats.

The proposal for the pension raise was put forth by labor unions and Swiss left-wing parties.  Unions and left-wing parties also opposed the increase in the pension age. 

Young people in Switzerland and elsewhere should take note:  unions and the left are not on your side. 

Switzerland badly needs pension reform.  The country is running out of young people.  Swiss government pensions are funded on a pay-as-you-go basis.  Low birth rates mean that the number of Swiss workers per pensioner is going to collapse in the near future. 

Below is the population pyramid of Switzerland.  The Switzerland is about to experience as wave of retirements as the Swiss equivalent of the Baby Boomers and Gen Xers are reaching retirement age in the next decade and a half.    

The results of the Swiss referenda show how unlikely it is that voters or politicians will enact reforms that put entitlements on a sustainable path. 

America also has a generational divide on entitlements.  As in Switzerland, young Americans are more likely to support changes to Social Security like cutting benefits or raising the retirement age.  A majority of older voters and organized interest groups like the AARP oppose changes that will improve the financial viability of the Social Security System. 

If even the Swiss have no taste for even modest changes to their pension system, there’s little reason to expect that Washington politicians or the American electorate will back changes to Social Security or other entitlements absent an imminent financial collapse. 

Five Signs the Recession is Already Here

 

The American economy has been transformed over the last three years through centralized economic planning and big government spending.  Americans have less freedom to make economic choices today than any time in the past 25 years. 

The result.  Not prosperity.  Most Americans believe that the inflationary economic policies of the Biden Administration have been harmful to them.  Inflation has eaten away at their paychecks.  Now there’s increasing evidence that the U.S. economy is sliding into or already in a recession. 

Here are five signs that the American economy is already in a recession:

Falling Economic Indicators: The Conference Board’s leading economic indicators are deep in recession territory.  Consumers are struggling to pay bills.  Consumer confidence is down.  Even demand for cardboard boxes, which are used to ship most everything, is down. 

Rising Business Bankruptcies: S&P reports that the number of business bankruptcies in 2023 was 72 percent higher than 2022 and the highest in the last thirteen years.  2023 has been described as a mass extinction year for startup companies.  Pitchbook estimates that over 3,000 venture-backed startups failed in 2023.  2023 was a dismal year for companies going public.  Only 154 companies went public in 2023, half the annual rate of initial public offerings during the four years of the Trump Administration. 

Falling tax collections:  federal tax collections in 3Q 2023 are down 11 percent from 3Q 2022.  Tax collections are a good sign of the amount of private sector economic activity because the federal government takes a share of all private sector earnings and profits. 

Manufacturing Contracting: The Institute for Supply Management reports that the manufacturing sector has been contracting for the last 14 months.  S&P’s Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson says about manufacturing that “an increasing sense of gloom about the near-term outlook has meanwhile hit hiring and led to a further major pull-back in purchasing activity.”  So much for blue collar Joe.

Declines in Temporary Employment: Temporary employees are easier to lay off than permanent employees.  As a result, temporary employment falls more rapidly than permanent employment as the economy enters a recession.  According to the BLS, employment in temporary services has fallen for 15 straight months. 

Yayoo! Finance: Wealth Transfer to Gen Z and Millennials Overstated

Millennials and Gen Zs that feel they are falling behind likely won't get much help from inheritances from parents says wealth manager Cerulli Associates.  The reason is the high cost of health care and that relatively few aging Baby Boomers and Silents have a large amount of wealth to begin with.  

But the overwhelming cost of health care for older people means most people in those later generations won’t inherit much, even if their elders seem well-off today.

The bulk of the trillions will go from one group of already wealthy people to another. Cerulli estimated that 68% of the wealth transferred between 2020 and 2045 — which includes boomers as well as older generations — will come from U.S. households with at least $1 million in investable assets. And only 6.9% of households have that kind of wealth to begin with, Cerulli added.

As I have blogged before, Gen Z and Millennials are in a difficult positron in building wealth.  Higher interest rates look to be the norm going forward.  High interest rates don't benefit most young investors.  

Most young people are net debtors rather than net creditors.  That is, the amount that they owe is greater than the amount they have in investments including holdings in 401(k)s.  The result is that it takes even longer for young people to reach the point where they have positive net wealth other than home equity.

Prospects for Gen Z and Millennials realizing further gains in home appreciation also appear slim.  Home affordability is at a multi-decade low meaning it is going to be tougher to find buyers.  Plus, home price growth over the last year has just about kept up with inflation.  While the nominal value of homes may have increased, so have prices for everything else.  Thus in real terms, homes are just as expensive today as they were last year.  

Finally, Gen Z and the Millennials will at some point be bearing the bill for the large amount of public sector debt that has been issued over the past twenty five years.  Eventually taxes will have to be raised.  When Uncle Sam's take goes up, Millennials and Gen Zs will have less to put away for their own savings and might very well find themselves subject to higher taxes on wealth passed down from their parent's generation.