Five Signs the Recession is Already Here

 

The American economy has been transformed over the last three years through centralized economic planning and big government spending.  Americans have less freedom to make economic choices today than any time in the past 25 years. 

The result.  Not prosperity.  Most Americans believe that the inflationary economic policies of the Biden Administration have been harmful to them.  Inflation has eaten away at their paychecks.  Now there’s increasing evidence that the U.S. economy is sliding into or already in a recession. 

Here are five signs that the American economy is already in a recession:

Falling Economic Indicators: The Conference Board’s leading economic indicators are deep in recession territory.  Consumers are struggling to pay bills.  Consumer confidence is down.  Even demand for cardboard boxes, which are used to ship most everything, is down. 

Rising Business Bankruptcies: S&P reports that the number of business bankruptcies in 2023 was 72 percent higher than 2022 and the highest in the last thirteen years.  2023 has been described as a mass extinction year for startup companies.  Pitchbook estimates that over 3,000 venture-backed startups failed in 2023.  2023 was a dismal year for companies going public.  Only 154 companies went public in 2023, half the annual rate of initial public offerings during the four years of the Trump Administration. 

Falling tax collections:  federal tax collections in 3Q 2023 are down 11 percent from 3Q 2022.  Tax collections are a good sign of the amount of private sector economic activity because the federal government takes a share of all private sector earnings and profits. 

Manufacturing Contracting: The Institute for Supply Management reports that the manufacturing sector has been contracting for the last 14 months.  S&P’s Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson says about manufacturing that “an increasing sense of gloom about the near-term outlook has meanwhile hit hiring and led to a further major pull-back in purchasing activity.”  So much for blue collar Joe.

Declines in Temporary Employment: Temporary employees are easier to lay off than permanent employees.  As a result, temporary employment falls more rapidly than permanent employment as the economy enters a recession.  According to the BLS, employment in temporary services has fallen for 15 straight months.