Will 2022 be the Year of the Young Republican?

 

Low approval for the Biden Administration and dissatisfaction with the state of the economy may finally bring young people around to the Republican Party.

The Democratic Party is dependent on young voters for electoral success.  Young people tend to vote Democratic while older voters favor the Republicans.

The age gap is so wide and persistent that had only voters over the age of 40 voted, not only would Donald Trump have been reelected in 2020, Mitt Romney and John McCain would have won in 2008 and 2016. 

And if only Americans over the age of 35 voted, Republicans would easily control both houses of Congress and a large majority of governorships.

Recent polling shows that young people have soured on the policies and performance of the Biden Administration.  I previously discussed results of the CBS poll.  Now a new poll by the Morning Consult shows equally dismal numbers for the Democrats.

The table below compares Biden’s approval in the Morning Consult poll with the share of the vote that he received in the 2020 election by age group. 

The difference between Biden’s job approval and the percentage of older Americans that voted for him in the 2020 election is less than ten points.

But among Americans below 35—Generation Z and younger Millennials—the gap between approval and vote share is a whopping 23 points.  Indeed, younger Americans now are marginally less likely to approve of Joe Biden’s performance as President than are older Americans.   

 

The decline in Biden’s approval ratings among younger Americans provides an excellent opportunity for Republicans bring younger voters over to their side. 

Young people now view Republicans as better able to manage the economy.  Economic issues are the top concern of young people according to the Morning Consult poll. 

 

Young people are open to electing more Republicans to Congress.  Democrats now only hold a slight edge among Americans between 18 and 34 though almost a quarter of the youngest voters say that they are unsure who they’ll vote for.

 

The failures and incompetence of the Biden Administration have created an opening for republicans to pitch their message to younger voters.  Whether Republicans will offer policies and candidates that are attractive to young voters remains to be seen.

Biden Tanks With Generation Z and Millennials

Young people were pivotal to the election of Biden in the 2020 election.  Now young Americans have become so dissatisfied with the Biden Administration that his approval levels among the young is at or above that of older voters.

If only voters over the age of 40 voted in the 2020 election, Donald Trump would have won in a landslide and the Republicans would have massive majorities in the House and Senate.

Now young Americans are turning on Biden. 

A January 2022 poll by CBS News and YouGov shows the depth of the dissatisfaction of young Americans with the performance of the Biden Administration.  It’s so bad that disapproval rates among young people are at the same level as older Americans

Results appear below:

Biden’s 42 percent approval rate among Generation Z is no different that the 40-44 percent among Americans over the age of 45.

And Biden’s approval rate for his handling of the economy among Generation Z is more than 10 points lower than Americans over age 45. 

In some ways this is little surprise.  Young people who are just starting their careers are feeling the effect of slow job growth.  The U.S. economy currently has 4 million fewer jobs today than in 2019 and many of those missing jobs would have been filled by young people.

Moreover, the Biden Administration offers little reason for hope among the young.

Their paychecks are being eaten away by the inflationary policies of the Biden Administration.

And young people should be bedeviled by the fear that they are the ones that will be stuck with the bill for Biden’s massive deficits and spending programs that benefit mostly special interests.

Does this portend a permanent change in the voting preference of young people?  Perhaps.  

 

College COVID Hysteria Will Permanently Damage Students

 

Colleges and universities are supposed to be bastions of science and logic.  Simple calculations of risk show that young people have a near zero mortality risk from COVID.  Yet college students are subject to far harsher lockdown and testing requirements than even the very old.  This not only defies common sense.  It is permanently harming an entire generation.

Social scientists are well-aware of the scarring effect.  Trauma in the early stages of life have an impact on our lives many years in the future.  In a classic in the field of life course studies, sociologist Glen Elder found that men who came of age during the Great Depression were more likely to be withdrawn, cyclical and depressed many decades in the future.   

Here's a clip from CBS news on the harm to children.  This clip was edited out by CBS news but is available on the internet.  The same could be said for college-age young people.

The COVID pandemic has been particularly hard on young Americans.  Like young people during the Great Depression, young people in America have been disproportionately harmed by job loss.  But young people today have the additional trauma from the hysteria that is gripping colleges and universities today.

One source of trauma is learning loss.  Two years into the pandemic, many colleges continue to conduct instruction through online learning.  Studies show that students at colleges that shifted to online learning had lower test scores than those who continued to learn on-campus. 

Another is the loss of ability to network and socialize with faculty and fellow students. 

But perhaps the most significant harm to young people is being traumatized by the constant fear mongering by college administrators.  According to a survey by BestColleges.com, 95 percent of college students say that they have experienced negative mental health symptoms as a result of COVID and 48 percent believe that mental health effects have negatively affected their education. 

Measures that have been taken by colleges are far out of line with the health risks to college students.  According to the CDC, the risk of death from COVID for Americans between the ages of 15 and 24 is 0.001 percent.  And colleges students are generally in good health so their risks are likely a small fraction of 0.001 percent. 

Yet at colleges like Boston’s Emerson, students are still confined to their rooms and at Georgetown subject to constant testing and confinement even  though they don’t show symptoms. 

The damage to the psyche and intellectual development of young people from these draconian measures are inflicting deep scars on the younger generations.  The effects have only begun to become apparent.  

Victor Davis Hanson on the Demonization of the Past

Brilliant essay by Victor Davis Hanson at Real Clear Politics.  Read the whole thing, download and save.  Here are some of the best parts.  

Critics assume their own judgmental generation is morally superior to those of the past. So, they use their own standards to condemn the mute dead who supposedly do not measure up to them.

Yet 21st-century critics rarely acknowledge their own present affluence and leisure owe much to history's prior generations whose toil helped create their current comfort.

And what may future scolds say of the modern generation that saw over 60 million abortions since Roe v. Wade, even as fetal viability outside the womb continued to progress to ever earlier ages?

What will our grandchildren say of us who dumped on them over $30 trillion in national debt - much of it as borrowing for entitlements for ourselves?

What sort of society snoozes as record numbers of murders continue in 12 of its major cities? What is so civilized about defunding the police, endemic smash-and-grab thefts, and car jackings?

Was our media more responsible, professional, and learned in 1965 or 2021? Did Hollywood make more sophisticated and enjoyable films in 1954 or 2021? Was there less or more sportsmanship among professional athletes in 1990 or 2021?

Was it actually moral to discard the "content of our character" and "equal opportunity" principles of the prior Civil Rights movement of 60 years ago? Are their replacement fixations on the "color of our skin" and "equality of result" superior?

Are we proud that most standardized tests of student knowledge and achievement continue to decline, despite record investments in education?

Do we ever pause to consider that we enjoy our modern standard of living and security because we were once a meritocracy that quit judging our workforce by tribal affinities and ancient prejudices?

Our generation talks of infrastructure nonstop. But when was the last time it built anything comparable to the Hoover Dam, the interstate highway system, or the California Water Project - much less sent a man back to the moon or beyond?

If prior generations were so toxic, why do we continue to take for granted the moral and material world they bequeathed to us, from the Constitution and the Bill of Rights to our airports, freeways, and power plants? Did we ever defeat anything comparable to the Axis powers or Soviet communism?