Sunday, September 9, 2012

College Grads Dropping Out of the Labor Force


Labor force participation in the United States has been dropping steadily since 2000.  Often times this is dismissed as a blue collar phenomena--factory jobs disappearing with nothing to take their place.  Wrong!  Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that labor force participation has been declining steadily for college degree holders as well (via Zero Hedge  ).  Indeed, there is little difference in LFP between high school (red series) and college graduates (blue series).

VDH On the Terrifying New Normal


Victor Davis Hanson has a brilliant (as usual) piece on the struggles facing young people in America today. 

Unemployment rates of those 16-24 are now officially over 50%. Even the cohort between 16 and 29 suffers from 45% unemployment. In short, in four years we have become Europeanized: young people with no jobs who are living at home and putting off marriage and child raising — a “lost” generation in “limbo,” etc. etc. They may have a car, borrow their parents’ nicer car for special occasions, watch their parents’ big screen TV, and have pocket change for a cell phone and laptop by enjoying free rent, food, and laundry, but beneath that thinning technological veneer there is really little hope that they will ever be able to maintain that lifestyle on their own in this present day and age. Meanwhile, just like some Middle East tribal society, “contacts,” “networking,” and “pull” are the new gospel, as parents rely on quid pro quos to offer their indebted, unemployed (and aging) children some sort of inside one-upmanship in the cutthroat job market.
 
This is the part that really hurts:

But these days, the game has changed somewhat — or rather been downscaled: the PhD is not being hired for anything other than part-time teaching; the JD is reduced to the law library gofer; the freshly minted MD is the equivalent of a salaried, high-paid nurse; the credentialed high-school teacher is subbing; the engineer is a draftsman; the carpenter is cobbling together home repair mini-jobs. The new plum job? Landing one of those federal or state regulatorships, inspectorships, or clerkships, which are paid for with borrowed money, produce little, and grow as those they audit and fine shrink.
 
Read the whole thing.  

Romney Ryan Polling Well With Young People


Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are making headway in wooing young voters to the GOP.  A Zogby Poll finds that Romney now has over 40 percent of the vote among voters under the age of 30:

For the first time since he began running for president, Republican Mitt Romney has the support of over 40 percent of America's youth vote, a troubling sign for President Obama who built his 2008 victory with the overwhelming support of younger, idealistic voters.
Pollster John Zogby of JZ Analytics told Secrets Tuesday that Romney received 41 percent in his weekend poll of 1,117 likely voters, for the first time crossing the 40 percent mark. What's more, he said that Romney is the only Republican of those who competed in the primaries to score so high among 18-29 year olds.
The Zogby poll is not an anomaly.  According to a poll by CIRCLE Romney was already doing much better than McCain among young voters even before the addition of Paul Ryan to the ticket.


Peter Levine, the director of CIRCLE -- a nonpartisan group that conducts research on young Americans’ political participation -- said that Romney clearly has improved over McCain’s standing with young voters but that the Arizona senator’s campaign set a low benchmark at a time when Republican youths were particularly unengaged.
“I don’t believe the fact that Ryan is relatively young himself has that much of an appeal,” Levine said. “There’s a tendency to think young people are just into superficiality, but I tend to find they vote based on their policy views.”
In a nationwide poll conducted online and released weeks before the addition of Ryan to the GOP ticket, CIRCLE found that Obama was leading Romney by a 55 percent to 42 percent margin among 18-to-29-year-old voters.

Sunday, July 1, 2012

Who is Taxed for Obamacare? Young People Are


This week the U.S. Supreme Court rules that the penalty that Obamacare levies on those without health insurance is a tax, not a penalty.  Pundits will discuss endlessly the finer points about whether it is a tax or penalty.  The government argued both before the court and Obama insists that it is not a tax, and therefore one would gather, that it is unconstitutional.  Pretty messed up, right?

Call it a tax or penalty, it is going to hit young Americans much harder than the rest of the population.  

As Keith Hennessey points out, the tax will only affect about one in five Americans without insurance.  Of the 21 million uninsured in 2016, the CBO estimates that only 3.9 million will be subject to Obamacare's tax.  He presents a list of those who won't be covered:

You won’t have to pay the tax if:
  • you’re not in the U.S. legally;
  • you’re in prison;
  • you’re poor (measured two different ways);
  • you’re a member of an Indian tribe;
  • you’re in a period of being uninsured that’s less than three months long;
  • your religion forbids getting health insurance; or
  • you get a waiver from HHS.
 Indians aren't subject to the Obamacare tax?  Who knew?

So who will be in the 3.9 million that are subject to the Obamacare tax?  Overwhelming young people.  As I have pointed out earlier on this blog, Obamacare imposes limits on the differential ion premiums between what insurance companies can charge the young and old.  Actuaries find that the cost to cover the average young person is between one-fifth and one-tenth the cost of an older person.  Obamacare limits the difference in rates to one to three.  That means higher premiums for young people.  The higher premiums on the young are then used to subsidize the old.  That also means that young people will experience a larger differential between the amount paid in premium and the value received in health care services.  More young people will decide to go without high cost insurance and just pay the tax (about $750).  The result is that young people not only are more likely to go without coverage, they also get hit with the cost of the Obamacare tax.  http://www.forbes.com/sites/aroy/2012/03/22/how-obamacare-dramatically-increases-the-cost-of-insurance-for-young-workers/


Saturday, June 23, 2012

Youth Scarred by Obama Economy

The USA Today  has a piece on how young people are harmed by starting their careers in difficult economic times.   Half of recent college graduates are not working and of those that are, only about 40% are in positions that fully utilize their skills.

Back to the 1930s
Social scientists say these young adults are a lot like the Americans who came of age in the early 1930s, both in the economic upheaval they confront and in the attitudes toward success, contentment and risk aversion that they are forming.
"The economic situation (of young adults) is completely parallel and analogous to the (Depression-era) GI generation — raised in relative affluence, and then just as they are to start in that affluent world, it all comes crashing down," says Morley Winograd, who has co-authored several books on Millennials, the generation born from 1982 to 2003. "And so they have to find new ways to persevere. They just have assumed that everything that came before them was a mirage — that it was false, built on unsafe foundations."

Excess student loan debt is making their suation far worse.  But, I would note, the amount of debt burdening young people from student loans is a drop in the bucket compared to the problems that young Americans will experince from general government indebtedness(15 times higher at least)

A Harvard University Institute of Politics survey in March and April found that more than three out of four college students expect to have a somewhat or very difficult time finding a job. And 45% expect student loans to affect their financial circumstances "a lot" after they graduate.
Their pessimism is based on the experience of the 20-somethings just ahead of them. A Rutgers University study this spring of 444 graduates who received bachelor's degrees from 2006 to 2011 found that 51% were working full time. The rest were in graduate school, unemployed, working part time or no longer in the job market.
One in four were living with parents. Those who got jobs beginning in 2008, the height of the Great Recession, earned a starting salary, on average, 10% less than those graduates who entered the job market in 2006 and 2007, according to the Rutgers survey. All this has happened as the total amount of student loan debt in the USA surpassed $900 billion.

Saturday, June 16, 2012

Obama's Amnesty Means More Competition for Jobs, College for You

The Washington Post  states the obvious, Obama's amnesty program means more competition for jobs and  university slots for young Americans.  With half of young Americans out of work or underemployed, do you really need more headwinds in starting your career.

And needless to say these individuals obviously will have a leg up on young whites because of affirmative action.  Hope and change!

But opponents of illegal immigration warned that the policy could create significant new competition for jobs and university slots at a time of nationwide recession and numerous states’ efforts to curb public spending.
“I see a tidal wave coming,” said Brad Botwin, president of Help Save Maryland, a group that opposes legalization for undocumented immigrants. “Half of our college graduates today can’t find jobs, and the unemployment rate for high-school-aged Americans is extremely high. This is unfair to U.S. citizens and legal immigrants who are out there struggling to get ahead.”



Tuesday, June 12, 2012

Generation Rent

 NPR documents the collapse in home ownership rates among young people in America.  As noted in my post below, young people seeing parents, friends and siblings struggle with homes that are underwater are naturally loathe to buy a home and take on the mortgage debt.  This shows the longer run costs to society of bubbles.  Namely, the bursting of a bubble changes individual perception of the risk of a particular investment.

The Taylors aren't alone. The economic hammer has fallen especially hard on 20somethings — part of the so-called Millennial Generation or Gen Y born roughly between 1975 and 1995. Plagued by high unemployment, many have had to delay careers, marriage and having children. And the idea of owning a home is more often being put off or written off entirely.

In a nation where homeownership is part of the American dream, a generation of renters could alter communities where they live and redefine the idea of middle-class success.

'A Recipe For Frustration'

"They've seen what their parents are dealing with, what their brothers and sisters are dealing with, in terms of being saddled with home values that are less than what was paid for," says Paul Conway, a former chief of staff for the U.S. Department of Labor who is now president of Generation Opportunity, a think tank specializing in the economics of Generation Y.

Sociologist Katherine Newman, who chronicles some of the struggles in her book The Accordion Family: Boomerang Kids, Anxious Parents, and the Private Toll of Global Competition, agrees with Conway that we may be witnessing the creation of a generation of renters.

"I'm hoping that the Millennial Generation doesn't set its sights on homeownership as a benchmark of economic stability, because it's going to be out of reach for so many of them that it will just be a recipe for frustration," she says.

Sunday, June 10, 2012

Young Wisconsinites Swing Towards Walker


Perhaps no institution is as harmful to the employment interests of young people as unions.  Unions insist on seniority rules that make it more difficult for young people to find work, change employers, learn new things on the job and gain promotions.  Seniority rules also make the jobs of young people less secure--young people with less seniority are the first to be laid off. 

Young people in Wisconsin are getting the message.  Public sector unions were the main issue in the 2012 Wisconsin gubernatorial recall election.  In that election, young people moved decisively towards Republican Scott Walker and away from Democrat Tom Barrett.  US News reports: 

According to Crossroads Generation, a group dedicated to reaching young people with the messages promoting individual liberty, limited government, and free enterprise, in the recall election Walker carried the vote of those under the age of 25.

"According to exit polling," the group said, "for voters aged 18-29, the Democrats' advantage among this group was cut in half compared to 2010. While Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett held a ten-point advantage among 18-29 year olds in the 2010 election, that gap was reduced to five points in Tuesday's election."

Home Ownership Among Young People Plummets

The Boston Globe reports that home ownership rates in Massachusetts among 25 to 34 year olds fell by 20 percent between 2005 and 2010.  High unemployment and high debt are the reason that young people can't make the transition from renting to ownership and in many cases, from moving out of their parent's' home.  The Globe writes:

The number of 25-to-34-year-olds owning homes in Massachusetts plunged 20 percent between 2005 and 2010, even as the overall number of homeowners in the state increased slightly, according to the US census. The rate of homeownership, which measures the percentage of housing units occupied by owners, fell more for 25-to-34-year-olds than any other age group, declining to 34 percent from 40 percent in 2005.

And as for the factors:

High unemployment, crushing student debt, and tight credit conditions are keeping many young adults and families from becoming homeowners, analysts and real estate professionals said. At the same time, the turmoil that has followed since prices peaked in 2005 and the housing market collapsed is changing this younger generation’s view of housing, long thought of as a safe, sure investment and prerequisite to the American dream.
Government created the housing bubble.  Many of these young people who saw their older friends and siblings buy homes only to find their residence deeply underwater.  It's no wonder that young people today are hesitant to make such an investment.

Saturday, June 2, 2012

From BA to AA

The Milwaukee Journal reports that college graduates are increasingly going back to technical school to learn practical skills. 

Ericka Seastrand graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Madison in 2008 with a bachelor's degree in consumer science. She beat the pavement for nine months, and the only job she could get was retail sales associate at a mall.

"The market was really competitive," the 26-year-old from West Milwaukee recalled last week. "My degree was a generic business degree - nothing technical or tangible in the skill set. So I decided to get another degree with a hard skill set."

Seastrand is one of a surprising number of 20-somethings who graduated from college in recent years, couldn't find good-paying jobs with their four-year degrees, and enrolled in a technical college to earn a second degree or diploma geared toward specific job opportunities.

In the last three years, 6.4% of the total number of degrees and diplomas awarded at Waukesha County Technical College went to 20-somethings who self-reported they had at least 16 years of education before enrolling at the technical college, according to data analysis requested by the Journal Sentinel. Twenty-somethings represented 79.5% of all WCTC's grads from 2009 to 2011 who already had bachelor's degrees.

Generation Broke

Boston Globe 
Notwithstanding their collective $200 billion in spending power, and an awesome ability to drive cultural and fashion trends, millennials are not feeling flush these days. Those not drowning financially are often treading water at best, according to surveys like the one released last month by WSL/Strategic Retail, a consulting firm that tracks shopping and retail trends.

Millennials now represent “the highest percentage of Americans lacking enough money to meet their basic needs,” outdistancing Gen X-ers and baby boomers in that dubious regard, according to the survey.
Burdened by $1 trillion in college debt, millennials seek the lowest price on most of their purchased items (80 percent say), shop for lower-priced brands whenever possible (60 percent), and do much of their bargain hunting online (57 percent), the WSL survey found.

Call them Generation Groupon. And with thousands more collecting their college diplomas this spring, ever more of them are sailing into young adulthood, ready or not.

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Decline

From The Economist:

Less normal is how many Americans have come to think that the country is not just passing through a rough patch but is in long-term decline. A survey of 12 swing states found 55% agreeing that the jobs being created in the recovery are of lower quality than those jobs lost during the recession. By a margin of nearly two to one, Americans expect their children’s jobs, salaries and benefits to be worse than their own. Some 35% go so far as to say that America’s best days are behind it.

Sunday, May 13, 2012

Harvard IOP Millenial Survey Results Released


Harvard's Institute of Politics conducts a biannual survey on the political attitudes and outlook of Americans aged 18 to 30.  The Spring 2012 edition of the survey came out on April 24.  Results are available here. 

Some of the more interesting findings:

The GOP is less popular among Millenials than the conservative ideology.  35 percent of Millenials describe themselves as conservatives while only 24 percent identify with the GOP.  That's evidence of the failure of the Republican party to even corral its base among young voters.

Still, there is little love for the Obama agenda among Millenials

- Only 20 percent of Millenials believe that the United States is headed in the right direction.

- 46 percent disapprove of Obama's performance as President.  That's going to be a tough nut to crack if Obama hopes to get anywhere in the neighborhood of the 63 percent of the Millenial vote he attracted in 2008.

- 58 percent disapprove of Obama's handling of the economy

- 54 percent disapprove of Obama's handling of health care

- 63 percent disapprove of Obama's handling of the federal deficit

- 73 percent only sometimes or never believe that the federal government can be trusted to do the right thing

- 46 percent believe that minorities should not be given preferences in hiring and education, only 14 percent do.  Watch out Elizabeth warren.

Will the GOP be able to capitalize on the Millenial dissatisfaction with the status quo?

Frank Advice to the Class of 2012

Bret Stephens gives some frank advice to the class of 2012 in the Wall Street Journal.  bet you never heard anything like this at a commencement ceremony:

Allow me to be the first one not to congratulate you. Through exertions that—let's be honest—were probably less than heroic, most of you have spent the last few years getting inflated grades in useless subjects in order to obtain a debased degree. Now you're entering a lousy economy, courtesy of the very president whom you, as freshmen, voted for with such enthusiasm. Please spare us the self-pity about how tough it is to look for a job while living with your parents. They're the ones who spent a fortune on your education only to get you back— return-to-sender, forwarding address unknown.

Read the whole thing. 

Monday, April 23, 2012

Half of Recent College Graduates Unemployed or Underemployed


Taking underemployment into consideration, the job prospects for bachelor's ­degree-holders fell last year to the lowest level in more than a decade.
"I don't even know what I'm looking for," said Michael Bledsoe, who described months of fruitless job searches as he served customers at a Seattle coffeehouse. The 23-year-old graduated in 2010 with a creative writing degree.

Saturday, April 7, 2012

Germany Proposes a Youth Tax

Nobody does Generational Theft like the Germans

GERMANY is proposing to levy extra taxes on the young to pay for the costs of the country's growing numbers of old people, under government plans for a ''demographic reserve'' levy.
Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats have drafted proposals that, if law, would require all those over 25 to pay a proportion of their income to cushion Germany against a looming population crisis.
The German Chancellor's ruling party is seeking extra sources of revenue to pay for soaring pensions and bills for social care costs as Germany's ''baby boomer'' generation ages amid a decline in the birth rate.

Monday, April 2, 2012

Senior Citizens and Student Debt

Higher Education Bubble Update:  The Federal Reserve Bank of News York has some stunning data on student loan debt.  $135 billion -- 15% of the total -- of the $870 billion in student loan debt is owed by Americans over the age of 50 and $35 billion is owed by Americans over the age of 60.

Student loan debt means a lifetime of servitude for millions of Americans,   

How College Students Were Shafted by Obamacare

Friday's Wall Street Journal discusses exactly how young people have been shafted by Obamacare.  Hope and Change! 
College students in nearly all states will be hit with a triple whammy. First of all, tuitions are increasing at public universities and colleges in large part because ObamaCare restricts governors from making changes to Medicaid eligibility that would reduce their state's health-care costs. Consequently, higher education is one of the first places they can cut.

College students are being hit again because the federal government took over the student-loan business in 2010, eliminating the competition. This allows the Education Department to borrow money from Treasury at an interest rate of 2.8% and lend it to college students at a rate of 6.8%. A portion of the profits from overcharging students will be used to help pay for ObamaCare.

And the third blow comes as college students graduate and enter a depressed job market where employers are creating fewer jobs as a result of the high costs associated with ObamaCare. Analysts at UBS have suggested as much when they stated in a September 2011 report that the health-care law is "arguably the biggest impediment to hiring, particularly hiring of less skilled workers."

Sunday, April 1, 2012

Supreme Court Oral Argument Show How Obamacare Hurts Young People

Oral argument in the Supreme Court case regarding Obamacare shows why the program is harmful to young people.  If the federal government was making retirees pay $5,000 a year for insurance coverage that could be purchased on the open market for $854 a year, you better believe that the politicians in Washington would be hearing about it.  Why is it OK for the government to shaft your generation to pay for entitlements for oldsters? 

JUSTICE ALITO: But isn't that a very small part of what the mandate is doing? You can correct me if these figures are wrong, but it appears to me that the CBO has estimated that the average premium for a single insurance policy in the non-group market would be roughly $5,800 in — in 2016.
Respondents — the economists have supported — the Respondents estimate that a young, healthy individual targeted by the mandate on average consumes about $854 in health services each year. So the mandate is forcing these people to provide a huge subsidy to the insurance companies for other purposes that the act wishes to serve, but isn't — if those figures are right, isn't it the case that what this mandate is really doing is not requiring the people who are subject to it to pay for the services that they are going to consume? It is requiring them to subsidize services that will be received by somebody else.
GENERAL VERRILLI: No, I think that — I do think that's what the Respondents argue. It's just not right. I think it — it really gets to a fundamental problem with their argument.
JUSTICE GINSBURG: If you're going to have insurance, that's how insurance works.
GENERAL VERRILLI: A, it is how insurance works, but, B, the problem that they — that they are identifying is not that problem. The — the guaranteed issue and community rating reforms do not have the effect of forcing insurance companies to take on lots of additional people who they then can't afford to cover because they're — they tend to be the sick, and that is — in fact, the exact opposite is what happens here.
 

Detroit Students Walkout: Students Demand an Education

There is no institution in society that is doing more to steal the future of young people than the public education system. The Detroit Free Press  reports that: 

About 50 high school students at Frederick Douglass Academy in Detroit were suspended Thursday after walking out of classes to protest a host of issues at the all-boys school. The concerns included a lack of consistent teachers and the removal of the principal. The boys, dressed in school blazers, neckties and hoodies, chanted, "We want education!" as they marched outside the school. Parents organized the walkout because they fear for the school's future. As recently as last month, students spent weeks passing time in the gym, library or cafeteria due to a lack of teachers, parents said
If the failings of the education bureaucracy had even 1% of the attention of that of the single Trayvon Martin case, there may be some hope for these young people.  

Friday, March 23, 2012

NYT: How Italy’s Labor Codes Hurt Young People


The New York Times reports on how Italy’s labor laws are stealing the future away from young Italians.  Labor and pension laws provide older Italians with employment protections and generous pensions.  The cost is borne by young people who have less job security and more dismal future prospects as a result.

ROME — Assunta Linza, a bright-eyed 33-year-old with a college degree in psychology, has been unemployed since June, after losing a temporary job as a call-center operator. Her father, who is 60 and has a fifth-grade education, took early retirement with full benefits at age 42 from a job as a workman at the Italian state railway company.

“Everyone said that kids should study to get ahead, but I graduated with highest honors, and the only thing my degree is good for is to hang on the wall,” Ms. Linza said dryly. 

Barack Obama’s agenda involves the expansion of union power and entitlement programs.  The experience of young people in Italy should provide fair warning of where Mr. Obama’s agenda is taking your future.

American Mammoni


The Christian Science Monitor reports that the percentage of young people living with their parents has reached the highest level since the 1950’s.  

After graduating from Brown University in 2009 with a bachelor’s degree in comparative literature and completing a Fulbright scholarship in Brazil, Cassie Owens was left with a few dollars on her stipend and no job in sight. So, Ms. Owens returned home to her mother in Philadelphia.

“I moved back home pretty much for lack of money and prospects,” she says. Owens’s cousin, Evon Burton, who also returned home after graduating from Morehouse College in 2009, adds, “The choice is to go out and be in debt or to pursue your dreams and save up money at home, in a safe, stable environment.”

Thursday, March 1, 2012

US Youth Unemployment at European Levels

How's that hopey changey stuff working out?  Labor force participation of young Americans falls to a 64 year low under Barack Obama. 

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

The Economist: Europe's Labor Markets Stacked Aginst The Young

In this week's issue The Economist notes that youth unemployment may, in the long run, prove to be the worst of Europe's many problems 

OF ALL the euro zone’s many problems, youth unemployment is perhaps the most distressing. Joblessness among young workers is around 30% in Portugal and nearly 50% in Spain. Above-average unemployment is the norm for young people, even in more liberal markets like America’s. But Spain’s youth unemployment rate jumped by nearly 20 percentage points between 2007 and 2009, compared with a rise of seven points in America. Labour-market regulations take much of the blame: while hard-to-fire older workers luxuriate on permanent contracts, the young are typically hired temporarily and are easier to sack.

Read the whole thing!

Monday, February 27, 2012

Why the GOP Shouldn't Write Off the Milennial Vote

A new Harvard Survey shows that the votes of young people in 2012 are up for grabs.  In a trial heat against Mitt Romney, young people between 18 and 29 favor Obama by a mere 11 point margin over Mitt Romney (37% Obama to 26% for Romney).  That's a far cry from the 2-1 margin by which younger voters favored Obama over McCain.  The survey also found that a majority of young people believe that Obama will lose the election.     

On the issues (toplines here) Millennials disapprove of Obama's handling of the federal budget (30% approve, 67% disapprove) and the economy (32% approve, 65% disapprove).  Millennials even give Obama a thumbs down on his signature issue: health care (43% approve, 54% disapprove).

Will this be the year the GOP finally connects again with younger voters?