Will 2022 be the Year of the Young Republican?

 

Low approval for the Biden Administration and dissatisfaction with the state of the economy may finally bring young people around to the Republican Party.

The Democratic Party is dependent on young voters for electoral success.  Young people tend to vote Democratic while older voters favor the Republicans.

The age gap is so wide and persistent that had only voters over the age of 40 voted, not only would Donald Trump have been reelected in 2020, Mitt Romney and John McCain would have won in 2008 and 2016. 

And if only Americans over the age of 35 voted, Republicans would easily control both houses of Congress and a large majority of governorships.

Recent polling shows that young people have soured on the policies and performance of the Biden Administration.  I previously discussed results of the CBS poll.  Now a new poll by the Morning Consult shows equally dismal numbers for the Democrats.

The table below compares Biden’s approval in the Morning Consult poll with the share of the vote that he received in the 2020 election by age group. 

The difference between Biden’s job approval and the percentage of older Americans that voted for him in the 2020 election is less than ten points.

But among Americans below 35—Generation Z and younger Millennials—the gap between approval and vote share is a whopping 23 points.  Indeed, younger Americans now are marginally less likely to approve of Joe Biden’s performance as President than are older Americans.   

 

The decline in Biden’s approval ratings among younger Americans provides an excellent opportunity for Republicans bring younger voters over to their side. 

Young people now view Republicans as better able to manage the economy.  Economic issues are the top concern of young people according to the Morning Consult poll. 

 

Young people are open to electing more Republicans to Congress.  Democrats now only hold a slight edge among Americans between 18 and 34 though almost a quarter of the youngest voters say that they are unsure who they’ll vote for.

 

The failures and incompetence of the Biden Administration have created an opening for republicans to pitch their message to younger voters.  Whether Republicans will offer policies and candidates that are attractive to young voters remains to be seen.