Young Americans are warming to the idea of a second Trump presidency. Trump in 2024 is more popular with younger voters than ever.
This article examines the political preferences of young Americans as reflected in the Youth Poll conducted by The Institute of Politics at Harvard University. Harvard’s Youth Poll provides a high-quality picture of the views of young Americans. The poll has been conducted every Spring and Fall since 2003 and many questions repeat between waves. Respondents are limited to Americans between the ages of 18 and 29. Sample sizes are larger than the typical 500-1000 respondents in the typical political opinion poll. The margin of error in the Harvard Youth Poll is 3 percent or less.
The tables below contain the results of Harvard Polls taken in the Spring of each election year. The fieldwork dates and the sample sizes appear in a table at the end of this note.
Youth Poll results show that young Americans are much more likely in 2024 to plan to cast a vote for Donald Trump than they were at the same point in the 2016 election and marginally more likely than in 2020. The eight point difference in Trump support between 2016 and 2024 is statistically significant at the 95 percent level.
In contrast, support for Biden has collapsed. The share of young adults planning to vote for Joe Biden in November is 14 percentage points lower in 2024 than in 2020. Biden is now just 7 points ahead of Trump (38 percent to 31 percent) compared to 22 points at the same time in 2020.
A larger share of young Americans are undecided in 2024 than at the same point in the 2016 or 2020 election cycles. The growth of undecideds almost exactly matches the decline in support for Biden. The high share of undecided young adults presents a huge opportunity for Donald Trump and the Republicans. In 2024, 41 million members of Gen Z (ages 18 to 27) will be eligible to vote. The ability to attract young voters to the Republican ticket over the next six months could well make the difference to the outcome of the coming election.
Young Trump supporters are much more enthusiastic about their candidate than young Biden supporters. According to the Harvard Youth Poll, 68 percent of young Trump supporters are enthusiastic about their candidate, an increase of 17 percentage points since 2020.
Enthusiasm for Biden has collapsed since 2020. Just over two in five young Biden supporters–42 percent–are enthusiastic about their candidate, a decline of 17 percentage points since 2020.
Other results in the 2024 Harvard Poll suggests that it will be difficult for Biden to close the enthusiasm gap. For one, a majority of young adults–56 percent–tell Harvard that they don’t follow politics closely. Second, young people are overwhelmingly negative about the current direction of the country. In the 2024 poll, just 9 percent saw the United States as headed in the right direction. Third, Biden’s student debt bailout plans are of interest to just a small sliver of the young electorate. Just 26 percent of young adults overall consider student debt relief an important issue. Results are little different among independents (26 percent important) and young adults in battleground states (27 percent important). Fourth, unanticipated events over the next six months are unlikely to rally young voters to Biden. Just 26 percent expressed confidence in the 2024 survey regarding Biden’s ability to lead in a crisis.
Lack of enthusiasm for Biden and the high share of young adults that are undecided presents an enormous opportunity for Donald Trump and other Republicans.
Should Trump and Republican candidates make an effort to present solutions to the top concerns of young Americans –inflation, jobs, and the high cost of living–in terms that resonate with them, they could easily find enough votes to win the Presidency and one or both houses of Congress.
Republicans should not ignore the 40 million members of Gen Z who will be eligible to vote in 2024, about half of whom will be eligible to vote for the first time. Despite the growing youth support for Donald Trump, Republicans have done little to connect to this vital demographic group. A good start would be to document exactly how young Americans would benefit from the Republican platform and economic agenda.
