Five Signs the Recession is Already Here

 

The American economy has been transformed over the last three years through centralized economic planning and big government spending.  Americans have less freedom to make economic choices today than any time in the past 25 years. 

The result.  Not prosperity.  Most Americans believe that the inflationary economic policies of the Biden Administration have been harmful to them.  Inflation has eaten away at their paychecks.  Now there’s increasing evidence that the U.S. economy is sliding into or already in a recession. 

Here are five signs that the American economy is already in a recession:

Falling Economic Indicators: The Conference Board’s leading economic indicators are deep in recession territory.  Consumers are struggling to pay bills.  Consumer confidence is down.  Even demand for cardboard boxes, which are used to ship most everything, is down. 

Rising Business Bankruptcies: S&P reports that the number of business bankruptcies in 2023 was 72 percent higher than 2022 and the highest in the last thirteen years.  2023 has been described as a mass extinction year for startup companies.  Pitchbook estimates that over 3,000 venture-backed startups failed in 2023.  2023 was a dismal year for companies going public.  Only 154 companies went public in 2023, half the annual rate of initial public offerings during the four years of the Trump Administration. 

Falling tax collections:  federal tax collections in 3Q 2023 are down 11 percent from 3Q 2022.  Tax collections are a good sign of the amount of private sector economic activity because the federal government takes a share of all private sector earnings and profits. 

Manufacturing Contracting: The Institute for Supply Management reports that the manufacturing sector has been contracting for the last 14 months.  S&P’s Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson says about manufacturing that “an increasing sense of gloom about the near-term outlook has meanwhile hit hiring and led to a further major pull-back in purchasing activity.”  So much for blue collar Joe.

Declines in Temporary Employment: Temporary employees are easier to lay off than permanent employees.  As a result, temporary employment falls more rapidly than permanent employment as the economy enters a recession.  According to the BLS, employment in temporary services has fallen for 15 straight months. 

Yayoo! Finance: Wealth Transfer to Gen Z and Millennials Overstated

Millennials and Gen Zs that feel they are falling behind likely won't get much help from inheritances from parents says wealth manager Cerulli Associates.  The reason is the high cost of health care and that relatively few aging Baby Boomers and Silents have a large amount of wealth to begin with.  

But the overwhelming cost of health care for older people means most people in those later generations won’t inherit much, even if their elders seem well-off today.

The bulk of the trillions will go from one group of already wealthy people to another. Cerulli estimated that 68% of the wealth transferred between 2020 and 2045 — which includes boomers as well as older generations — will come from U.S. households with at least $1 million in investable assets. And only 6.9% of households have that kind of wealth to begin with, Cerulli added.

As I have blogged before, Gen Z and Millennials are in a difficult positron in building wealth.  Higher interest rates look to be the norm going forward.  High interest rates don't benefit most young investors.  

Most young people are net debtors rather than net creditors.  That is, the amount that they owe is greater than the amount they have in investments including holdings in 401(k)s.  The result is that it takes even longer for young people to reach the point where they have positive net wealth other than home equity.

Prospects for Gen Z and Millennials realizing further gains in home appreciation also appear slim.  Home affordability is at a multi-decade low meaning it is going to be tougher to find buyers.  Plus, home price growth over the last year has just about kept up with inflation.  While the nominal value of homes may have increased, so have prices for everything else.  Thus in real terms, homes are just as expensive today as they were last year.  

Finally, Gen Z and the Millennials will at some point be bearing the bill for the large amount of public sector debt that has been issued over the past twenty five years.  Eventually taxes will have to be raised.  When Uncle Sam's take goes up, Millennials and Gen Zs will have less to put away for their own savings and might very well find themselves subject to higher taxes on wealth passed down from their parent's generation.  

Two in Three Young Americans Want Social Security Reform

 

Young Americans are more likely than Baby Boomers to want Social Security reformed according to a new survey by Redfield and Wilton Strategies.  According to Newsweek magazine:

“A majority of 63 percent of Americans ‘strongly agreed’ (28 percent) or ‘agreed’ (35 percent) that the Social Security system needs to be reformed, according to the Redfield & Wilton Strategies/Newsweek poll. Only 10 percent ‘strongly disagreed’ (5 percent) or ‘disagreed’ (another 5 percent).”

Support for reform was strongest among Millennials:

“According to the poll, 56 percent of Gen Zers, 76 percent of millennials and 69 percent of Gen Xers believed the system should be reformed, against 50 percent of boomers.”

Newsweek interviewed Richard Johnson, Head of the Urban Institute’s program on retirement security.  Johnson offering sobering comments for young Americans: "unless policymakers fix Social Security's finances in the next 10 years, millions of retirees and people with disabilities would plunge into poverty."

That’s bad news for young Americans. 

Will the Biden Administration and the Democrats fix Social Security?  That’s easy: NO.  In fact, their plans will make things worse.

For example, Senator Elizabeth Warren wants to increase benefits for Baby Boomers by $200 a month. 

Giveaways to current beneficiaries like Senator Warren’s will make the system even more unfair to Gen Z, Millennials and Gen X.

It’s far past time to exert real pressure on the Washington political class to end the fleecing of young Americans.  Real Social Security reform would be a good place to start. 

Africa Moves Ahead on Nuclear Power, The West Falls Further Behind

 

I consider myself an eco-modernist.  I understand the science behind climate change.  But I don’t think either panic or deindustrialization is necessary to address it.  Rather, I believe that technology can allow us to reduce carbon emissions and at the same time increase our material standard of living. 

The most promising alternative to fossil fuels is nuclear power.  Unfortunately, government regulation and environmentalist scaremongering has prevented the development of new commercial nuclear facilities in the United States and Europe for the last fifty years.

Fortunately, the rest of the world is not so backward looking.  Commercial nuclear development is taking off in Africa. 

African economies are growing rapidly and so is their demand for reliable electricity that can power industry and commercial activities.  Wind and solar can’t do that. 

Here’s a roundup of commercial nuclear development in North and East Africa. 

Egypt is building a mammoth 4,800 MW plant on the Mediterranean coast.  The El Dabaa plant is being financed with assistance from Russia. 

Four East African countries have announced plans to develop commercial scale nuclear power plants to support economic growth.

Uganda is leading the way.  Uganda is planning a 2000 MW nuclear power plant with the first 1000 MW of capacity to be brought online in 2031.

Rwanda signed an agreement with a German-Canadian company to develop a nuclear power test facility. 

Kenya plans to start construction on a 1000 MW commercial nuclear plan in 2027. 

Burinka Faso is working with Russian on the development of commercial nuclear. 

And Tanzania is looking into developing commercial nuclear facilities in conjunction with Russia. 

Meanwhile, Germany shut down its last three nuclear plants this year.  In their place, Germany has ramped up generation from carbon-emitting coal. 

Nuclear energy is yet another industry where the United States is far behind Russia and China.  None of the African projects are being developed by U.S. firms.  Commercial nuclear has become another industry of the future where the United States is not competitive.

Update: China brings the world's first Generation IV nuclear reactor online.

Young Voters Rally to Conservative Parties in the USA, Argentina and Canada

 

Young Americans are turning thumbs down to the statist policies of the Democrats.  Polls show Trump leading Biden among 18-35 year olds.  But it’s not just the USA.  Young people are rejecting socialism and the parties of the left throughout the world.

The most recent NBC poll shows Donald Trump beating Joe Biden by four points among 18 to 35 year olds.  Trump also has a four point margin over Biden among all voters.

This is a seismic shift in the views of young voters.  In the 2020 election, Biden had a 26 point lead among voters between the ages of 18 and 35 reports the Daily Mail 

But its not just the United States. 

Young people are rallying to candidates with a conservative and free market message throughout the world.

Young voters were the key to libertarian Javier Milei’s victory in the Argentine presidential election. 

Milei promised to stop inflation through a sound money policy; cut public spending by 15 percent; and stop rampant corruption.

Milei got 56 percent of the vote in the November 19 election.

In his victory speech, Milei said that his victory marks the beginning of the reconstruction of Argentina. 

“Today we retake the path that made this country great.  Today we embrace the ideas of libertarianism.  The model of decadence has come to an end.”

Argentina was once one of the richest countries in the world.  Today, more than half of all Argentines are poor or destitute.  Inflation is 143 percent a year.  The

And it doesn’t stop there.

North of the border, in Canada, Pierre Poilievre’s free market message is winning over young voters. 

Poilievre’s stock speeches address issues like inflation and loose monetary policy; Canada’s housing shortage, free speech and cutting Canada’s bloated and oppressive government bureaucracy.  He’s an eco-modernist backing technological solutions, not taxes, to the climate change question. 

And importantly, Poilievre’s upbeat and making it fun to be a conservative again. 

Young people throughout the world are rejecting socialism and the bureaucratic, high tax parties of the left.  This includes Joe Biden and the Democrats. 

Instead, young voters are putting their hopes in pro-freedom, pro-opportunity parties in much of the world.  This is good news for parties on the right.  Now these parties need to deliver.

 

Share of Young Adults Living with Parents Highest in 80 Years

 

The percentage of young adults that live with their parents is higher now than at any time since the Great Depression of the 1930s.  Almost one in two now live with parents.

The inability of young people to form their own households is a long-term negative for American society.

Moving out of one’s parent’s home is an important marker on the road to independent adulthood.

But today, young people are finding it difficult to strike out on their own. 

Young people were harder hit than older Americans from job and income losses from the COVID lockdowns.  Now they’re facing an unstable job market, the hangover from the high cost of college and student debt, and falling income in real terms.

However, the biggest barrier to independent living is probably sky-high rental and housing prices.

Marriage and family are for most people a source of personal happiness and a fulfilling life.

The inability of young people to form their own households will inhibit marriage and birth rates.  Married couples want their own space and to live their lives outside of parental authority.  Unaffordable rents and home prices are causing young people to delay getting married and having children.

Though marriage rates and average family size have declined over the past fifty years, Americans still want the joys of family life. 

In fact, the percentage of Americans that view three or more children as ideal in 2023 is higher than at any time since the start of the 1970s.  According to Gallup, almost 50 percent of Americans view three or more children as ideal.  Only 2 percent of Americans view zero children as ideal.

The early years of adulthood are a critical time in our lives.  Until now, it is the stage of life in which so many important life decisions are made.

High housing costs and a bad economy limit the flexibility of young Americans to explore life’s possibilities including those concerning marriage and family and to make those choices that produce the greatest happiness and fulfilment in the long-run.

 

Gen Z on the Move

 

New report from the consulting firm Oliver Wyman has lots of interesting data on what young people in the United States and the United Kingdom look for in a job.  

An astonishing 62 percent of Gen Z workers are at least passively looking for a job as are 60 percent of Millennials (graphic below).  

Some other key findings

- Young people today are twice as likely to struggle with mental health issues as older workers.

- 41 percent of men and 48 percent of women have a side hustle of some sort whether it be a second formal or informal job.  

A key takeaway form the study is that young people want flexibility.  As I point out in my own research, the rigid environment of unionized workplaces is unlikely to provide the flexibility that young people need.

The United States should be freeing up workers, not forcing them into rigid employment relationships.  This is a big problem for the Democratic party as it pits one of their most important voting blocks (younger people) against one of their main funders (labor unions).